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A China-US rivalry-seeking India is not a guru to the rest of the globe - tripleyou - 09-27-2023
A China-US rivalry-seeking India is not a guru to the rest of the globe
In the same way that Washington once courted China during the Cold War, the US is now courting India
Detente between China and India will better serve both nations' geopolitical and economic interests, therefore New Delhi should grab the opportunity
27 Sep, 2023
India is becoming more significant. How much more significant will it eventually become? Major newspapers, billboards, and bus stations in every Indian city declared India to be a "Vishwaguru," or teacher to the world, in the run-up to the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi.
This puzzles me. What could India impart to the world? It has never been hesitant to call itself the biggest democracy in the world. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government in India is coming under increasing fire for being oppressive and autocratic. On September 18, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau informed the nation's parliament of "credible allegations" linking the murder of a well-known Canadian Sikh to "agents of the government of India".
Despite the tremendous expansion of the world's fifth-largest economy, even if India could maintain yearly growth of 5%, its gross domestic product per head would reach around 30% of US levels by 2050, or roughly where China's is at the moment. Over the course of four decades, Beijing has rescued hundreds of millions from poverty. China, of course, has more to teach other developing nations about how to achieve economic development.
Modi didn't invite China, Brazil, or South Africa to the virtual Voice of the Global South Summit he convened in January for 125 developing nations. India would have likely felt ashamed to identify itself as the voice of the Global South in the presence of these top developing nations.
The main benefit of India is that, as a middle power, it can profit from rivalry between superpowers. China and India have both chosen to remain neutral in the conflict in Ukraine, but Washington has put aside its displeasure with New Delhi because of its long-term strategic desire to bind India to it and counter China. India was able to convince the US and Europe to support a G20 declaration on the Russian invasion of Ukraine in this way. Obviously, if China had been the G20 host, it would have been more difficult to obtain this accord.
Indian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni indicated that India may play a "central role" in helping to mediate a halt to hostilities in Ukraine, although India is unable to do so. On the table already are a number of peace proposals, one of which is from China. None of them will be successful until Moscow and Washington, not Moscow and Kiev, can reach a compromise. If anyone can get Russia to listen, it's more likely to be China than India.
Russia is a source of energy and weapons for India. But according to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, Russia's dependence on China will outlast Vladimir Putin because China is becoming an increasingly important partner for Russia diplomatically and as a market for its goods.
The relationship between India and Russia is on the long term decline, but it won't end. India will continue to rely on Russian oil and gas for many years to come, but it will lessen its reliance on Russian weapons. Russia's delivery of Talwar-class stealth frigates to India is already running behind schedule as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.
Washington would be delighted to wean New Delhi off its reliance on Russia. It is unclear whether expanding US-India defence industrial collaboration would actually improve New Delhi's defence manufacturing capabilities or if India's defence industry will end up being an even bigger mishmash of components from many sources.
The main problem for New Delhi is to maximise benefits from its connections with distant Washington without upsetting Beijing, its more powerful neighbour. In the same way that the US once allied with China to fight the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the US is now courting India. There's little doubt that now is the perfect time for New Delhi to act. If acting fake is an art, Modi is the undisputed master.
For instance, despite the fact that India's position on maritime law is more similar to China's than the US', he has supported the US' call for a "free and open Indo-Pacific". The US Navy has posed a challenge to China and India by conducting freedom of navigation missions into their exclusive economic zones. The Chinese Navy will undoubtedly respond, in contrast to the Indian Navy, which will operate as though nothing has happened.
The interests of both nations would be served by a detente between China and India. For instance, 70% of the active chemicals used in India's pharmaceutical industry, a significant exporter, come from China. India is a big market for China as well. This explains why Chinese businesses are still thinking about investing in India despite complaints about the country's internal environment.
India's capital won't serve as a willing pawn for the United States unless there is a border conflict between China and India. There is little chance of war between China and India. It is true that the two sides engaged in a fatal brawl in the Galwan valley in June 2020, but this was the first time in more than 40 years that there were casualties.
The fact that the soldiers on both sides were using clubs and stones to combat one other shows that they were aware that they should never fire weapons at one another. It is entirely doable for both parties to uphold peace in the border region for at least another four decades if a lesson has been properly learnt.
At best, India's foreign policy is pragmatic; at worst, it is opportunistic. However, India won't become a "Vishwaguru" by striving to please everyone. India is more akin to the Aesop's fable's bat, which, depending on whether it anticipates a conflict between birds and animals, either refers to itself as a bird or a beast. However, this is not exclusive to India. In a world of growing major-power competition, there are more bats than birds or mammals.